Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
