Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
